June 9, 2023

The impact of Medicaid redeterminations on the uninsured rate 

On April 1st, Medicaid’s pandemic-era continuous enrollment policy began to sunset, kicking off a 14-month window for states to reassess their Medicaid rolls. In this week’s graphic, we highlight new Congressional Budget Office projections showing the impact of Medicaid redeterminations on insurance coverage rates over the next decade for the under-65 population. The Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) coverage rate is expected to drop from 31 percent of all Americans under 65 in 2023, to 27 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, after reaching an all-time low in 2023, the under-65 uninsured rate is projected to surpass nine percent in 2024 and climb to over 10 percent by 2033. While over 15M Americans are expected to lose Medicaid coverage during redeterminations, a majority of those disenrolled will gain health insurance either through an employer-sponsored or non-group plan. But over 6M people, nearly 40 percent of those losing Medicaid coverage, are projected to become uninsured, erasing nearly half the progress the country has made since 2019 at lowering the uninsured rate.

Medicaid Redeterminations Graphic